Belief Systems

Indices

Indices that price event risk in real time.

Each one aggregates a curated set of prediction markets under a documented methodology – politics, geopolitics, policy, and macro uncertainty.

01

Raw Event Data

Prediction markets price the probability of specific outcomes.

02

Index Methodology

We curate and weight markets to represent a specific event risk theme.

03

Index Data

The output is a transparent, interpretable time series for analysis.

Learn about our methodology→Request custom index→

Available Indices

Click any index to view details. Click column headers to sort.

AIACCELBelief Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Expectations IndexJun 7, 202699.61-5.04%-2.03%-6.38%-0.39%
CONFLICTBelief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations IndexApr 24, 202633.01+0.25%+14.91%+23.01%-66.99%
DGTDWNBelief Global Digital Asset Underperformance Expectations IndexApr 25, 202694.42+1.66%-6.99%-8.34%-5.58%
DGTUPBelief Global Digital Asset Appreciation Expectations IndexApr 25, 2026112.05-1.59%+11.68%+18.87%+12.05%
MIDD26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 202696.64+0.00%-0.58%+2.78%-3.36%
MIDR26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 2026106.82+0.00%+1.08%-4.73%+6.82%
PEACEBelief Global Peace Expectations IndexApr 24, 2026124.92+0.09%-3.97%-3.77%+24.92%
PRESD28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Democratic Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 2026100.83+0.04%+0.09%-0.40%+0.83%
PRESR28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 202699.26-0.04%-0.08%+0.37%-0.74%
USDOVEBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 202647.89+1.95%-5.25%-33.45%-52.11%
USHAWKBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 2026123.32-0.52%+1.80%+9.78%+23.32%
USLATINT26Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 202652.51+2.26%-1.81%-29.92%-47.49%
USLATSQ26Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 2026122.62-0.45%+0.38%+9.54%+22.62%
Green = positive returnRed = negative return- = insufficient data