Belief Systems

Indices

Indices that price event risk in real time.

Each one aggregates a curated set of prediction markets under a documented methodology – politics, geopolitics, policy, and macro uncertainty.

01

Raw Event Data

Prediction markets price the probability of specific outcomes.

02

Index Methodology

We curate and weight markets to represent a specific event risk theme.

03

Index Data

The output is a transparent, interpretable time series for analysis.

Learn about our methodology→Request custom index→

Available Indices

Click any index to view details. Click column headers to sort.

CONFLICTBelief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations IndexApr 24, 202628.78+0.62%+2.22%-69.35%-71.22%
DGTDWNBelief Global Digital Asset Underperformance Expectations IndexApr 25, 2026104.30+0.25%+1.65%+3.85%+4.30%
DGTUPBelief Global Digital Asset Appreciation Expectations IndexApr 25, 202692.92-0.52%-2.91%-6.40%-7.08%
MIDD26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 202695.52+0.79%-0.39%-5.19%-4.48%
MIDR26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 2026109.09-1.37%+0.70%+10.77%+9.09%
PEACEBelief Global Peace Expectations IndexApr 24, 2026129.21+0.27%+0.15%+26.09%+29.21%
PRESD28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Democratic Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 2026101.59+0.05%-0.14%-0.55%+1.59%
PRESR28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 202698.58-0.05%+0.13%+0.52%-1.42%
USDOVEBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 202668.92-4.95%-5.55%-31.13%-31.08%
USHAWKBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 2026113.67+1.41%+1.59%+13.70%+13.67%
USLATINT26Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 202686.90+0.85%-0.41%-8.66%-13.10%
USLATSQ26Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 2026106.24-0.33%+0.16%+3.84%+6.24%
Green = positive returnRed = negative return- = insufficient data