Belief Systems

The measurement layer for prediction markets

$MIDD26U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 Index

114.93Latest level · base 100 at inception+10.39% over 30 days · as of Oct 13, 05:52 UTC

axis spans observed range · 19.9105110115120Sep 13Sep 28Oct 13

Featured series rotates daily

Open $MIDD26 →Full catalog →

Other live readings

$CONFLICT38.9

Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations Index

+0.20% 1D

$AIACCEL122.1

Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Expectations Index

+0.92% 1D

$MIDVOL36.1 pts

Estimated movement over the next 30 days · 24% release share

About Belief Systems

Prediction markets have prices. Institutions need measurements. Belief Systems publishes the independent benchmarks and forward volatility that make event risk usable in research, risk, and product design.

Belief IndicesOpen the indices →
Rules-based benchmarks of where expectations stand – elections, geopolitics, and policy outcomes.
Belief VolatilityOpen the family →
How far probabilities may move over a stated horizon, in probability points at stated tenors.

Calibration record

Methodology
Published and versioned; every series is rules-based.
Methodology ↗
Record
Point in time since January 2026. History is never silently rewritten.
Data ↗
Revisions
Prospective only, with a dated public changelog and a cessation policy.
Governance log ↗
Independence
Belief Systems does not operate a trading venue or make markets.
Governance ↗

Research on SSRN · Covered by Risk.net

Institutional data, redistribution, and benchmark licensing.

Data →Contact →