The index layer for
prediction markets.
Rules-based indices built from prediction-market prices.
Designed for institutional research, hedging, and portfolio construction.
How Institutions Use Belief Indices
Hedging Overlays
- Insurance & reinsuranceHedge catastrophe season exposure using disaster-risk indices as dynamic overlays
- Macro fundsHedge geopolitical tail risk without relying on commodity or defense-equity proxies
- Asset owners & corporatesHedge election-driven policy risk alongside core portfolios
Risk Management
- Stress testingInputs into stress testing, scenario analysis, and risk dashboards
- Early-warning indicatorsSignals for regime change and tail-risk monitoring
Portfolio Construction
- Pair tradesRisk-on assets plus uncertainty hedges
- Factor exposureExpress stability versus disruption as a distinct risk factor
The Hedging Gap in Modern Portfolios
Institutional portfolios face growing exposure to risks that are difficult to hedge directly:
- Discontinuous events: wars, elections, disasters, policy shifts
- Proxy dependence: oil, equities, FX, and volatility react after events occur
- Correlation spikes: regime changes impact multiple assets at once
Traditional hedges capture second-order price effects.
Belief Systems indices measure first-order outcome risk.
How we build an index.
Prediction Market Prices
Prediction markets trade contracts on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the market's implied probability of an event occurring.
Rules-based methodology
We curate and weight related prediction markets under a documented methodology to represent a specific class of risk.
A Transparent Time Series
The result is a continuously updated index that can be charted, decomposed, and used in analysis.
Four properties asset allocators care about.
Direct
Tracks the event itself, not a proxy
Adaptive
Updates continuously as information changes
Transparent
Components and weights are observable and auditable
Orthogonal
Uncorrelated to traditional asset classes – captures risk that equities, rates, and FX miss
Belief Indices
View all indices →Belief Global Peace Expectations Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
Belief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of restrictive Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USDOVE, which measures the inverse expectation.
Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of Republican control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Republican-aligned scenarios, specifically Republican control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Democratic control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Republican legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Republican strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
Built like an institutional benchmark provider.
Our indices are:
- Rules-based and documented
- Decomposable into underlying components
- Designed for risk transfer, signaling, and analytics
Belief Systems is not an exchange and does not facilitate wagering. We publish indices and related research for institutional evaluation and analysis.
Make Uncertainty Measurable
As uncertainty becomes a dominant macro variable, institutions need tools that price it explicitly, not indirectly.
If you research, hedge, or construct portfolios around event risk, we should talk.