The index layer for
prediction markets.
Rules-based benchmarks of event risk.
Built for research desks, risk managers, and asset allocators.
The Measurement Gap in Modern Portfolios
Institutional portfolios carry growing exposure to risks no market data measures directly:
- Discontinuous events: wars, elections, disasters, policy shifts
- Proxy dependence: oil, equities, FX, and volatility react after events occur
- Correlation spikes: regime changes impact multiple assets at once
Traditional market data captures second-order price effects.
Belief Systems indices measure first-order outcome risk.
For the events that most move portfolios – elections, policy decisions, conflict – there is no futures curve, no swap, no listed instrument to read. A Belief Index is often the only continuous measurement.
How Institutions Use Belief Indices
Measure
- A live gauge of event riskPrediction-market odds on the events that move portfolios, in one number, updated every 30 minutes
- Direct, not proxiedRead the outcome itself instead of inferring it from volatility, gold, or FX after the fact
Signal
- Stress testing & scenariosInputs into stress testing, scenario analysis, and risk dashboards
- Early-warning indicatorsSignals for regime change and tail-risk monitoring
- Macro researchAn orthogonal input — probabilities, not prices — for positioning reviews and factor work
Benchmark
- A reference for the asset classEvaluate prediction-market strategies and mark exposure against a rules-based standard
- A history that can’t be rebuiltLevels are recorded point-in-time, window by window – prediction market order books are never archived, so the series cannot be reconstructed later
- The layer products build onLicensed indices underlie regulated products as the ecosystem matures — the benchmark comes first
How we build an index.
Thousands of fragmented, individually quoted markets in. One rules-based benchmark out.
Prediction Market Prices
Prediction markets trade contracts on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the market's implied probability of an event occurring.
Rules-based methodology
We curate and weight related prediction markets under a documented methodology to represent a specific class of risk.
A Transparent Time Series
The result is a continuously updated index that can be charted, decomposed, and used in analysis.
Four properties asset allocators care about.
Direct
Tracks the event itself, not a proxy
Citable
A rules-based, third-party number you can put in a committee deck – and defend, because the methodology behind it is published
Transparent
Components and weights are observable and auditable
Orthogonal
Carries information equities, rates, and FX don’t – a distinct read on risk, not another price series
Belief Indices
View all indices →Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of U.S.-driven intervention in Latin America. It aggregates prices from a focused set of prediction market contracts covering Venezuelan leadership transition, U.S. military action against Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela, and broader hemispheric regime change pathways. By combining multiple intervention scenarios into a single index, it reflects the overall market-implied probability of U.S.-led pressure producing material political or territorial change in the region rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in market expectations as U.S. foreign policy posture, Venezuelan domestic conditions, and regional diplomatic developments evolve.
Belief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of accommodative Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USHAWK, which measures the inverse expectation.
Belief Global Digital Asset Underperformance Expectations Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of digital asset price underperformance across the major cryptocurrency complex. It aggregates prices from the same diversified set of prediction market contracts as the corresponding appreciation index, with each constituent voting the inverse side to capture downside expectations for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Movements in the index reflect changes in market-implied probabilities of downside realizations across the underlying assets, not directional price forecasts.
Theoretical index levels — midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Base Case
What prediction markets are pricing – the big picture, three things that matter, and what to watch. Written for asset allocators and research desks.
Free. Published every Wednesday.
Read Base CaseBuilt like an institutional benchmark provider.
In equities, the index came decades before the index fund. Prediction markets are running the same sequence — and we're building the index. A benchmark's authority accrues with its track record, and a track record can't be bought later.
Our indices are:
- Rules-based, with versioned methodology and prospective-only revisions
- Never silently restated – corrections are published and stale data is flagged, not hidden
- Decomposable into underlying components
- Designed for measurement, signaling, and analytics — and to underlie licensed products
Belief Systems is not an exchange and does not facilitate wagering. We publish indices and related research for institutional evaluation and analysis.
Make Uncertainty Measurable
As uncertainty becomes a dominant macro variable, institutions need tools that price it explicitly, not indirectly.
If you research, hedge, or construct portfolios around event risk, we should talk.