Belief Systems

Belief Systems – Terms of Service

Last Updated: June 2026

These Terms of Service (“Terms”) govern your access to and use of the Belief Systems website, indices, data, analytics, experimental features, and related services (collectively, the “Services”).

By accessing or using the Services, you agree to be bound by these Terms. If you do not agree, do not access or use the Services.

1. Provider; Assignment

The Services are provided by True Craft Ventures LLC, an Oregon limited liability company doing business as Belief Systems (“Belief Systems,” “we,” “us,” or “our”).

Belief Systems may assign or transfer these Terms and all associated rights and obligations to any affiliate, successor, or acquiring entity without prior notice to you. Such assignment shall not materially diminish your rights under these Terms.

2. Eligibility

You must be at least 18 years old and legally capable of entering into binding contracts to access or use the Services.

By using the Services, you represent and warrant that:

  • You are not prohibited from using the Services under applicable law; and
  • Your use of the Services complies with these Terms and all applicable laws and regulations.

Eligibility to participate in the Alpha Program (Section 3) is subject to the additional conditions in Section 4, including that you are an accredited investor whose status we are able to verify.

3. Nature of the Services

Belief Systems provides informational and research-oriented index data and analytics derived from publicly available sources. This informational content is available to the general public.

In addition, a limited number of invited participants hold interests linked to certain index series and participate in index-linked investment activity (the “Alpha Program”). Interests held through the Alpha Program are securities. They are made available solely on a private, invitation-only basis, in reliance on exemptions from registration under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), and only to persons who qualify as accredited investors and whose accredited status we (or our agents) verify. Nothing on or through the Services constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security.

The Services:

  • Are experimental and may change, pause, or terminate at any time;
  • Do not guarantee availability, liquidity, or execution; and
  • Make any investment functionality available only to verified accredited investors who have executed our Subscription Agreement.

Public access to the informational content of the Services does not entitle any person to participate in the Alpha Program or to acquire any interest.

4. No Public Offering; No Registration; No Advice

No public offering. Interests in the index series are made available only privately, by invitation, in reliance on exemptions from registration under the Securities Act. They have not been registered under the Securities Act or any state securities laws, and are not approved or disapproved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulator, or any other authority. The interests are “restricted securities” and may not be resold or transferred except as permitted under the Securities Act and applicable state law and our governing documents.

Accredited investors only; verification required. Every participant must be an accredited investor, and we take reasonable steps to verify accredited status before accepting any investment. No subscription will be accepted, and no investment functionality will be enabled, until (i) your accredited status has been verified and (ii) you have executed our Subscription Agreement. The Subscription Agreement and the disclosures referenced in it — not these Terms — govern the actual terms of any investment.

Informational materials are not an offer. Materials made available on or through the Services (including index data, performance information, and related commentary) are published for informational and research purposes only. They do not constitute an offer or sale in any jurisdiction, and are qualified in their entirety by the Subscription Agreement and accompanying disclosures with respect to any investment by an invited participant.

No advice; no broker or fiduciary relationship. Nothing in the Services constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation or endorsement of any transaction or strategy. Belief Systems does not act as a broker, dealer, investment adviser, fiduciary, or agent for any user. You should consult your own advisors before investing.

5. Experimental Nature; Risk of Loss

Any participation in the Alpha Program is experimental and involves substantial risk, including the risk of losing some or all invested funds.

Risks include, without limitation:

  • Software bugs, errors, or system failures
  • Partial execution, delayed execution, or failed execution
  • Liquidity constraints or execution limitations
  • Custodial, operational, or security failures
  • Methodology changes or index composition changes
  • Pauses, throttling, or termination of functionality

You acknowledge that there are no guarantees of performance, liquidity, or availability. The full risk factors applicable to an investment are set out in our Disclosures and the Subscription Agreement, which you should read in full before investing.

6. Custody of Assets

As part of the Alpha Program, you may be required to transfer digital assets or funds to wallets or custody arrangements controlled by Belief Systems, including smart contract–based or multi-signature custody mechanisms.

You acknowledge and agree that:

  • Belief Systems maintains operational control over such custody arrangements during the Alpha Program;
  • There is no independent qualified custodian, trustee, or third-party oversight body during the Alpha Program;
  • Withdrawals may be delayed, restricted, or suspended for operational, security, or risk-management reasons; and
  • Custodial arrangements are experimental and may change at any time.

6.1 Funding and Withdrawal by Bank Wire

As an alternative to on-chain USDC transfers, eligible participants may fund their cash balance, or receive a withdrawal, by US dollar bank wire. You agree that:

  • Wired funds are an investment subscription to the Alpha Program, not a bank deposit. They are received into a dedicated bank account maintained by True Craft Ventures LLC that is used solely for investor subscriptions and redemptions and is not commingled with the company's operating funds. This is a company account, not a third-party escrow or custodial account, and the funds are not FDIC- or SIPC-insured and carry no deposit guarantee of any kind.
  • You may send funds only from a bank account in your own name, and we send withdrawals only to a bank account in your own name. We may reject or return funds that appear to originate from, or be destined for, a third party.
  • We credit the US dollar amount actually received, which for international wires may be less than the amount sent after intermediary or correspondent bank fees.
  • Bank wires are final and irrevocable; there is no chargeback or reversal. You are responsible for the accuracy of any bank details you provide for a withdrawal.
  • For a deposit, you must include the reference code shown in your account. Funds we cannot identify may be delayed or returned, net of fees.
  • We may reject, hold, or return funds at our discretion, including for sanctions, anti–money-laundering, eligibility, error, or over-subscription reasons. No interest accrues on funds before they are credited or paid out.

7. Fees

Fees may apply to the Services or investment functionality now or in the future, as described in the Subscription Agreement and accompanying disclosures.

Belief Systems reserves the right to introduce, modify, or remove fees, subject to the terms of the Subscription Agreement and applicable law. The specific fees applicable to an investment are disclosed in the Subscription Agreement in effect at the time of your investment.

8. Methodology, Accuracy, and Changes

All indices, analytics, values, and methodologies:

  • Are theoretical or model-based
  • May be incomplete, delayed, or erroneous
  • Are subject to change without notice

Index levels and related performance figures are theoretical, non-executable values derived from midpoint prices and are presented before trading fees, spreads, slippage, and market impact; the value actually realizable on a mint or redemption may be lower. Belief Systems reserves the right to modify, restate, suspend, or discontinue any index, methodology, or feature at any time.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

9. No Reliance

You agree that:

  • You use the informational Services entirely at your own risk;
  • You will not rely on the informational Services as the sole basis for any investment decision; and
  • Any decisions you make based on the Services are your sole responsibility, made in reliance on the Subscription Agreement and disclosures and your own advisors.

10. Data License and Acceptable Use

Ownership. The Belief Indices — including index levels, constituent compositions and weights, reconstitution history, methodologies, and all derived analytics (the "Index Data") — are proprietary to Belief Systems. The underlying prediction-market probabilities are publicly available; the Index Data — the rules-based aggregation, the point-in-time archive, and the governed methodology — is not. The Index Data is licensed, not placed in the public domain.

Free tier — research and editorial use. The point-in-time dataset snapshots published on our Data page are made available free of charge for non-commercial research and editorial use under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC 4.0), together with a limited editorial-use grant, provided each use carries the attribution "Source: Belief Systems (beliefsystems.xyz)." Journalists and researchers may reproduce and cite the Index Data on these terms without a separate agreement.

Licensed tier — commercial and systematic use. Any other use requires a separate written license through Index Services. This includes, without limitation: live or programmatic data feeds; automated, bulk, or systematic extraction of Index Data from this website or its interfaces; redistribution or resale; incorporation into any product, benchmark, fund, or index-linked instrument; and any trading, investment, or other commercial use. The public website and its endpoints are provided for individual, interactive use and are not a licensed data feed; accessing them as one confers no license and is prohibited under the acceptable-use terms below.

Acceptable use. You agree not to:

  • Scrape, crawl, or systematically extract data;
  • Circumvent access controls, rate limits, or security measures;
  • Interfere with or disrupt the Services;
  • Introduce malware or malicious code;
  • Use the Services in violation of applicable law.

Belief Systems may restrict, suspend, or terminate access at any time, with or without notice.

11. Suspension and Termination

Belief Systems reserves the right to suspend or terminate access to the Services or Alpha Program, in whole or in part, at its sole discretion and without liability, including to protect system integrity or manage risk.

Participation in the Alpha Program may be revoked at any time, subject to the redemption and withdrawal terms of the Subscription Agreement.

12. Disclaimers

THE SERVICES ARE PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE.”

TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, BELIEF SYSTEMS AND ITS MEMBERS, MANAGERS, OFFICERS, AND AGENTS DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

This Section 12 applies to the informational Services. It does not limit, and shall not be read to limit, any representation, warranty, or obligation of Belief Systems set out in the Subscription Agreement, nor any right or remedy that cannot be disclaimed under applicable law (including the federal and state securities laws).

13. Limitation of Liability

Subject to the carve-outs below, and to the maximum extent permitted by law, in no event shall Belief Systems, its members, managers, officers, or agents be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary, or punitive damages arising out of your use of the informational Services, and their aggregate liability for such use shall not exceed USD $100.

This Section 13 does not apply to, and shall not be construed to limit, waive, or cap:

  • Any liability arising under the federal or state securities laws, or any other liability that cannot be limited or waived under applicable law;
  • Any liability for fraud, intentional misrepresentation, willful misconduct, or gross negligence; or
  • The rights, remedies, representations, and obligations set out in the Subscription Agreement governing your investment.

Nothing in these Terms is intended to operate as a waiver of compliance with any provision of the Securities Act or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and any such purported waiver is void.

14. Indemnification

You agree to indemnify and hold harmless Belief Systems, its members, managers, officers, employees, and agents from any claims, damages, losses, or expenses (including reasonable attorneys' fees) arising from your use of the Services or violation of these Terms. This Section 14 does not require indemnification for any loss to the extent caused by Belief Systems' own fraud, willful misconduct, gross negligence, or violation of the securities laws.

15. Arbitration; Class Action Waiver

Any dispute arising out of or relating to these Terms or the informational Services shall be resolved by binding arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association in Portland, Oregon. You waive any right to participate in a class action or representative proceeding.

This Section 15 does not waive, and shall not be construed to waive, any right or remedy that cannot be waived under applicable law, including under the federal securities laws. Disputes arising under the Subscription Agreement are governed by the dispute-resolution provisions of that agreement.

16. Governing Law

These Terms are governed by the laws of the State of Oregon, without regard to conflict-of-laws principles. The Subscription Agreement may specify a different governing law for matters relating to your investment.

17. Single-Entity Structure; Conflicts of Interest

You acknowledge that, during the Alpha Program, True Craft Ventures LLC acts in multiple capacities with respect to the index series — including as issuer of the interests, manager of the underlying portfolio, operator of the platform, and custodian of the assets — and that there is no separate fund entity, independent manager, independent custodian, or independent administrator. This concentration of roles creates inherent conflicts of interest, including that the same party determines net asset value, controls custody, decides the timing of mints, redemptions, and withdrawals, and sets fees. These conflicts are mitigated by, among other things, multi-signature custody controls and automated solvency and reconciliation checks, but are not eliminated. Additional conflict and structural disclosures are set out in our Disclosures and the Subscription Agreement.

18. Contact

For questions regarding these Terms:

True Craft Ventures LLC d/b/a Belief Systems Email: contact@beliefsystems.xyz