Market Grades by Belief Systems
BetaMarket Grades
Independent letter grades for prediction-market liquidity and integrity. Find a market, assess the evidence behind its price, and cite its standing record.
Market Grades are in beta. Grades are live, and the methodology is being validated in public on a published schedule. Validation roadmap ↗
Coverage: Polymarket · 835 markets under coverage · as of 2026-10-22 · mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0
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Market Grades by Belief Systems · as of 2026-10-22
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Rating actions
Newest first · latest 2026-10-22 · every action is dated and permanent
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xfe28…8e52pending
- 2026-10-22Review closedWill 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xfe28…8e52removed, not confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xfbd0…1b71confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xfbb8…00c9pending
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xf0a4…f15epending
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xf02d…8815pending
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xe883…548dpending
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xe655…16bfconfirmed
Show all 40 recent actions
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xe2bd…e3dfpending
- 2026-10-22Review closedWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xdce8…f264confirmed
- 2026-10-22DowngradeWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xdce8…f264confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xdb88…a3c3pending
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xd66e…fda7confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xd5d9…1bb4confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xd0d3…8852confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review replacedWill Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xd0d3…8852review ended near resolution
- 2026-10-22Review closedWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xce3c…2c56confirmed
- 2026-10-22DowngradeWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xce3c…2c56confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xcd95…a58aconfirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xccea…0d65confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xc892…70d0confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xc656…04a9confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freeze2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Houseon approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xc5ea…e76bconfirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xbfeb…5bd4confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xbaa9…09e0confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xb8b5…7743confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xb56f…2aa8pending
- 2026-10-22grade establishedWill Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?on a change in market status · Polymarket · 0xb31e…24daconfirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xb106…195epending
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xb02f…8611pending
- 2026-10-22Review closedWill LASK win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xaf3d…0579confirmed
- 2026-10-22DowngradeWill LASK win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xaf3d…0579confirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xad80…a5e8confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedWill François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?on rapid deterioration · Polymarket · 0xaba4…34fcpending
- 2026-10-22grade establishedWill François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?on a change in market status · Polymarket · 0xaba4…34fcconfirmed
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xaa95…feffconfirmed
- 2026-10-22Review replacedWill Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xaa95…feffreview ended near resolution
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xa5d7…ddf3confirmed
- 2026-10-22Review openedHantavirus pandemic in 2026?on overall measured quality · Polymarket · 0xa4dd…6f73pending
- 2026-10-22terminal freezeWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?on approaching resolution · Polymarket · 0xa34e…1c4dconfirmed
Coverage distribution
Grades use fixed criteria. A market’s grade does not depend on how other markets are graded.
A+
A
A-
B+
B
B-
C+
C
C-
D
F
NR
A – 0%
B – 0%
C – 0%
D – 0%
F – 0%
NR – 100%
No market carries a letter yet. The ladder and what each rung means are fixed in advance of the first grade.
The ladder is fixed – an A means the same capability in every period and on every venue. A plus or minus marks position within a band, not a different meaning. Not Rated sits off the ladder: it is a refusal to opine, not a low grade.
What each rung means
| Band | What it means |
|---|---|
| A | Very strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| B | Strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| C | Moderate measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| D | Weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| F | Very weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| NR | No opinion is offered on these markets. Not Rated is a refusal to opine, and never a position on the ladder. |
Disclosures
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
Market Grades are unsolicited: no graded party requests, pays for, or previews a grade. Belief Systems holds no positions in graded markets.
A grade is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position, and is not a substitute for a user's own assessment.