Belief Volatility
Probability tells you where belief stands. Belief Volatility tells you how far it may move.
Belief Volatility is a standardized estimate of how much prediction-market probabilities are expected to move over a stated horizon. Readings are quoted in probability points.
Available Volatility Indices
Click any index to view details. Click column headers to sort.
| MIDVOL | Midterms Uncertainty Index | 35.5 pts | 30 days | 127d |
Readings are quoted in probability points at each index's headline horizon. Values are computed every five minutes, published prospectively, and never restated.
Belief Volatility indices are benchmark data products. They are not investable, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of any outcome. Disclosures