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This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
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Theoretical index level — midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Belief Global Peace Expectations Index crossed 125, recovering slightly from a recent low of 124.75, though it remains roughly 5 points below levels from one week ago. Iran's IRGC strike on U.S. maritime radar in Oman and a tanker hit near Khasab — alongside continued Russian strikes on Odesa port infrastructure — keep de-escalation expectations subdued.
This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
Performance data as of Jul 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
This index is periodically rebalanced to keep tracking the most relevant, liquid prediction markets. Each event below records the markets added to the index – follow any market to view it on the live source.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.