Index Level
All-Time Return
24H
7D
30D
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This index measures market-implied expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of restrictive Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USDOVE, which measures the inverse expectation.
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Belief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations Index rose 1.3% as U.S.-Iran military exchanges and surging oil prices stoked inflation concerns, reducing expectations of near-term Fed easing.
This index measures market-implied expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of restrictive Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USDOVE, which measures the inverse expectation.
Performance data as of Jun 2, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.