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This index measures market-implied expectations of U.S.-driven intervention in Latin America. It aggregates prices from a focused set of prediction market contracts covering Venezuelan leadership transition, U.S. military action against Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela, and broader hemispheric regime change pathways. By combining multiple intervention scenarios into a single index, it reflects the overall market-implied probability of U.S.-led pressure producing material political or territorial change in the region rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in market expectations as U.S. foreign policy posture, Venezuelan domestic conditions, and regional diplomatic developments evolve.
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Theoretical index level — midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 Index holds at 50.31, crossing the round-number threshold but extending a week-long slide from the mid-50s as U.S. foreign policy attention shifts toward Iran.
This index measures market-implied expectations of U.S.-driven intervention in Latin America. It aggregates prices from a focused set of prediction market contracts covering Venezuelan leadership transition, U.S. military action against Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela, and broader hemispheric regime change pathways. By combining multiple intervention scenarios into a single index, it reflects the overall market-implied probability of U.S.-led pressure producing material political or territorial change in the region rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in market expectations as U.S. foreign policy posture, Venezuelan domestic conditions, and regional diplomatic developments evolve.
Performance data as of Jul 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.