Index Level
All-Time Return
24H
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30D
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This index measures market-implied expectations of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of accommodative Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USHAWK, which measures the inverse expectation.
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Theoretical index level – midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Belief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations Index surged 23.6% to 41.06, recovering sharply after two consecutive sessions of heavy losses. Fed official Kevin Warsh signaling an October pause drove hold expectations on Kalshi from 50% to 86%, overwhelming the prior hawkish pressure from hot CPI data.
This index measures market-implied expectations of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of accommodative Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USHAWK, which measures the inverse expectation.
Performance data as of Oct 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × price: the midpoint, or the settlement value once a market resolves. Total contribution equals the raw index value.
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $BELIEF_API_KEY" \
https://api.beliefsystems.xyz/v1/indices/USDOVE/latestSwap /latest for /history to read the trailing 90 days at 1h or 1d. Free keys run 60 requests a minute and 2,000 a day.
Every composition change: markets added, resolved markets leaving as settlement exits, and removals. Most are made at the scheduled review, days 1–7 of each month (UTC); a change made outside that window is marked out of cycle. The level is chain-linked across every change.
Added
Settlement exits
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.