Index Level
All-Time Return
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This index measures market-implied expectations of escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine–Russia, the China–Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under escalatory scenarios (invasion, kinetic military action, regime collapse, failure to reach ceasefire, nuclear proliferation, and alliance fracture). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of geopolitical escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived escalation risk as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
as of Loading...
Theoretical index level – midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Belief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations Index rose 2.5% to 39.97, its highest level in the current seven-day run. CBS News reports of White House plans to deploy the GBU-43 "Mother of All Bombs" against Iran, alongside Pentagon signals of a US strategic pivot away from Europe under a "NATO 3.0" framework, drove the move.
This index measures market-implied expectations of escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine–Russia, the China–Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under escalatory scenarios (invasion, kinetic military action, regime collapse, failure to reach ceasefire, nuclear proliferation, and alliance fracture). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of geopolitical escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived escalation risk as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
Performance data as of Oct 16, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × price: the midpoint, or the settlement value once a market resolves. Total contribution equals the raw index value.
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $BELIEF_API_KEY" \
https://api.beliefsystems.xyz/v1/indices/CONFLICT/latestSwap /latest for /history to read the trailing 90 days at 1h or 1d. Free keys run 60 requests a minute and 2,000 a day.
Every composition change: markets added, resolved markets leaving as settlement exits, and removals. Most are made at the scheduled review, days 1–7 of each month (UTC); a change made outside that window is marked out of cycle. The level is chain-linked across every change.
Added
Settlement exits
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.