Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Very weak market quality
As of Oct 23, 2026 · F since Oct 23, 2026Measured from Sep 23 to Oct 23, 2026
Grade limits apply: D from the weaker of liquidity and integrity, C+ from trading evidence.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Active
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Current · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity · grade limit C+
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Very weak
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
F since Oct 23, 2026 · steady
Integrity
Moderate
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
C+ since Oct 23, 2026 · steady
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
Reason: overall measured quality · Confirmed
Why it changed
The recorded trigger was a change in the combined liquidity and integrity assessment.
Dates and identifier
Reason: overall measured quality · Confirmed
Why it changed
The recorded trigger was a change in the combined liquidity and integrity assessment.
Dates and identifier
Reason: overall measured quality · Open
Why it changed
The recorded trigger was a change in the combined liquidity and integrity assessment. A review does not by itself change the grade.
Dates and identifier
Reason: a change in market status · Confirmed
Details
The market’s grading status changed under the methodology’s lifecycle rules.
Dates and identifier
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- ActiveCurrent grade, reviewed daily.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- CurrentEnough data was observed.
- Grade limits
- D from weaker component (in force)C+ from trading evidence (in force)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Trading activity was below the evidence threshold, or too few trades were observed to assess it. A C+ grade limit from trading evidence is on this record.
- Grade since
- Oct 23, 2026
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 30 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Sep 23 to Oct 23, 2026
- First observed
- Aug 17, 2026
- Last complete day
- Oct 23, 2026
- Data check codes
- None
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0xc720fcfa9e29346a976902f87e0f0f3bdc31d43af501b4fdef4f1780a30dd359:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0xc720fcfa9e29346a976902f87e0f0f3bdc31d43af501b4fdef4f1780a30dd359
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- candidate
- Last confirmed change
- View it in grade changes
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Market Grade F.
- Episode:
- polymarket:0xc720fcfa9e29346a976902f87e0f0f3bdc31d43af501b4fdef4f1780a30dd359:1
- Flags:
- none
- Lifecycle:
- Active
- Data status:
- Current
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits D (weaker component), C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-10-23 · window 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0