Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Moderate market quality
As of Nov 2, 2026 · C+ since Oct 23, 2026Measured from Oct 3 to Nov 2, 2026
Resolved, so this grade is permanent.
A grade limit applies: C+ from the weaker of liquidity and integrity.
This grade describes the market over its last graded period, not today.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Resolved
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Current · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Sustained trading activity
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Weak
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
Last calculated Nov 2, 2026. Not being updated.
Integrity
Very strong
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
Last calculated Nov 2, 2026. Not being updated.
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
Why
The market resolved, so its last grade is permanent.
Dates and ID
Before grades went live (2)
Grades from before launch were never published, so no letters show.
- Oct 18, 2026Grade frozenMarket near its end
- Sep 16, 2026First grade
Grade history
All three use the same A+ to F scale. Gaps are days with no grade. Dots mark days with missing data.
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- ResolvedResolved, so the last grade is permanent.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- CurrentEnough data was observed.
- Grade limits
- C+ from the weaker of liquidity and integrity (in force)
- Trading activity
- Sustained trading activity (T2)Steady trading backed the quotes over the period. Trading sets no grade limit.
- Grade since
- Oct 23, 2026
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 29 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Oct 3 to Nov 2, 2026
- First observed
- Aug 17, 2026
- Last complete day
- Nov 2, 2026
- Data check codes
- None
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0xc3d5708780de5528998aeb53ca90e7ade64804f9f2386392a681435d5c42b44d:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0xc3d5708780de5528998aeb53ca90e7ade64804f9f2386392a681435d5c42b44d
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- candidate
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Market Grade C+ (final).
- Episode:
- polymarket:0xc3d5708780de5528998aeb53ca90e7ade64804f9f2386392a681435d5c42b44d:1
- Flags:
- none
- Lifecycle:
- Resolved
- Data status:
- Current
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Sustained trading activity (T2) · grade limits C+ (weaker component)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-11-02 · window 2026-10-03 to 2026-11-02
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0