Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Very weak market quality
As of Nov 3, 2026 · F since Oct 27, 2026Measured from Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
Some data was missing in this period, so no grade change can be confirmed until it recovers. Gaps are never filled in.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Active
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Data-limited · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Very weak
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
F since Oct 23, 2026 · steady
Integrity
Very strong
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
A+ since Nov 3, 2026 · steady
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
Grade revised to F. First published as C-.
Why: This first grade was computed as if trade data were partial. The trade record was complete. Governance Log
Dates and ID
Earlier version
Sharp drop in quality
Why
Market quality fell sharply, so a fast-tracked downgrade review began.
Dates and ID
Why
The market had enough days of data to get its first grade.
Dates and ID
Grade history
All three use the same A+ to F scale. Gaps are days with no grade. Dots mark days with missing data.
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- ActiveCurrent grade, reviewed daily.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- Data-limitedSome data was missing, and gaps are never filled in.
- Grade limits
- C+ from the weaker of liquidity and integrity (in force)C+ from trading activity (in force)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Little trading backed the quotes, or too few trades were seen to tell. The grade can be C+ at most.
- Grade since
- Oct 27, 2026
- Version
- 2, revised Oct 28, 2026
- First published
- C- on Oct 27, 2026
- Why
- This first grade was computed as if trade data were partial. The trade record was complete. Governance Log
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 30 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
- First observed
- Sep 27, 2026
- Last complete day
- Nov 3, 2026
- Data check codes
- inputs_unavailabletrade_coverage_gap
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0x799c35de1e5f3ebd75053643e020e6df9e9a3f477e3d6066eb0a8565f65d547f:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0x799c35de1e5f3ebd75053643e020e6df9e9a3f477e3d6066eb0a8565f65d547f
- Calculation status
- data_limited
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Market Grade F (v2, revised 2026-10-28; data-limited), as of 2026-11-03.
- Episode:
- polymarket:0x799c35de1e5f3ebd75053643e020e6df9e9a3f477e3d6066eb0a8565f65d547f:1
- Flags:
- inputs_unavailable, trade_coverage_gap
- Lifecycle:
- Active
- Data status:
- Data-limited
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits C+ (weaker component), C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-11-03 · window 2026-10-04 to 2026-11-03
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0