Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Very weak market quality
As of Nov 3, 2026 · F since Nov 1, 2026Measured from Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
Under review for a possible downgrade since Nov 1, 2026. The review closes by Nov 15, 2026.
Some data was missing in this period, so no grade change can be confirmed until it recovers. Gaps are never filled in.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Active
- Under review
- Possible downgradeSince Nov 1, 2026
- Data
- Data-limited · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Very weak
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
F since Oct 23, 2026 · steady
Integrity
Very weak
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
F since Oct 23, 2026 · steady
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
Sharp drop in quality · Still open
Why
Market quality fell sharply, so a fast-tracked downgrade review began.
Dates and ID
Why
The market had enough days of data to get its first grade.
Dates and ID
Grade history
All three use the same A+ to F scale. Gaps are days with no grade. Diamonds mark reviews and dots mark days with missing data.
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- ActiveCurrent grade, reviewed daily.
- Under review
- Possible downgrade, since Nov 1, 2026
- Data status
- Data-limitedSome data was missing, and gaps are never filled in.
- Grade limits
- D from the weaker of liquidity and integrity (in force)C+ from trading activity (in force)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Little trading backed the quotes, or too few trades were seen to tell. The grade can be C+ at most.
- Grade since
- Nov 1, 2026
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 4 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
- First observed
- Aug 18, 2026
- Last complete day
- Nov 3, 2026
- Data check codes
- inputs_unavailabletrade_coverage_gap
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0x63fbf0f40d2ca6b5efa75f5f9fe3474ab7fdd5d3611499295857401cbe17a4b8:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0x63fbf0f40d2ca6b5efa75f5f9fe3474ab7fdd5d3611499295857401cbe17a4b8
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- data_limited
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Market Grade F (data-limited).
- Episode:
- polymarket:0x63fbf0f40d2ca6b5efa75f5f9fe3474ab7fdd5d3611499295857401cbe17a4b8:1
- Flags:
- inputs_unavailable, trade_coverage_gap
- Lifecycle:
- Active
- Data status:
- Data-limited
- Under review:
- Possible downgrade since 2026-11-01
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits D (weaker component), C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-11-03 · window 2026-10-04 to 2026-11-03
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0