Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
As of 2026-10-22 · observations 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
Market Grades are in beta. Grades are live, and the methodology is being validated in public on a published schedule. Validation roadmap ↗
Grade of record
Grade pending · evidence accruing
We are collecting observations for this market. Grades will be published after the required launch checks are complete.
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
as of 2026-10-22
Liquidity and integrity
Liquidity
Trading depth, execution costs, and consistency.
Publishes its letter with the grade of record.
Integrity
Trading participation and the consistency of buy and sell quotes.
A screen for concentrated trading and disrupted books, not proof against manipulation. Distinct wallets do not establish distinct owners.
Publishes its letter with the grade of record.
Liquidity and integrity grades update daily using observations from the same 30-day window. Changes to the overall market grade are announced separately.
- Market status
- Active
- Review
- No review in progress
- Data status
- pending
- Trading evidence
- Moderate trading activity
- Data observed
- full · 100%
Evidence and latest action
Trading evidence and grade limits
No letter of record. Grade limits publish with the letter.
Latest action
grade establishedon a change in market status2026-09-16 · confirmed
Full action record ↓Rating actions
Permanent. Superseded and corrected actions stay on the record.
Why this action happened
The market’s grading status changed under the methodology’s lifecycle rules.
Review dates and technical record
History
Published grades over time · changes marked
No history yet. The chart opens once this market has more than one published grade of record.
Coverage distribution
Grades use fixed criteria. A market’s grade does not depend on how other markets are graded.
Coverage distribution is unavailable. The grade scale is shown without market counts.
The ladder is fixed – an A means the same capability in every period and on every venue. A plus or minus marks position within a band, not a different meaning. Not Rated sits off the ladder: it is a refusal to opine, not a low grade.
What each rung means
| Band | What it means |
|---|---|
| A | Very strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| B | Strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| C | Moderate measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| D | Weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| F | Very weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| NR | No opinion is offered on these markets. Not Rated is a refusal to opine, and never a position on the ladder. |
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Market Grades by Belief Systems
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Market Grade pending (evidence accruing; letters publish at launch)
- Episode
- polymarket:0x4273517fc8141d57ad1528ede46efdceebdb6a4da746d5de5bad216564209a1e:1
- Flags
- none
- Lifecycle
- Active
- Data status
- pending
- Review
- no Watch
- Trading evidence
- Moderate trading activity (T1) · grade limits publish with the letter
- Book coverage
- full · 100%
- As of
- 2026-10-22 · window 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
- Versions
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0
- Permalink
- https://beliefsystems.xyz/grades/polymarket/0x4273517fc8141d57ad1528ede46efdceebdb6a4da746d5de5bad216564209a1e
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
Market Grades are unsolicited: no graded party requests, pays for, or previews a grade. Belief Systems holds no positions in graded markets.
A grade is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position, and is not a substitute for a user's own assessment.
Technical record and methodologyData coverage, grading rules, and identifiers for verification
Grade status
- Market status
- ActiveGrade of record, reviewed daily.
- Watch
- none
- Data status
- CurrentThe grade is computed on observations that met the coverage threshold.
- Grade limits
- pending
- Trading evidence
- Moderate trading activityAPI category: T1Trading activity met the middle evidence threshold over the observation period. A B+ grade limit applies in the calculation.
- Grade since
- n/a
Observation record
- Data observed
- full · 100%
- Observed days
- 30 / 30
- Observation period
- 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
- Observation began
- 2026-08-17
- Last complete observations
- 2026-10-22
- Data check codes
- Codes identify checks that affected publication. Use these when comparing this record with the API.none
Identifiers and versions
- Market record identifier
- polymarket:0x4273517fc8141d57ad1528ede46efdceebdb6a4da746d5de5bad216564209a1e:1Identifies this version of the market question. A material question change starts a separate record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market id
- 0x4273517fc8141d57ad1528ede46efdceebdb6a4da746d5de5bad216564209a1eThe venue's own identifier for this market; unique within the venue.
- Correction version
- 0
- Calculation status
- candidate
- Last confirmed action
- none
- Methodology
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
The covered universe
No market carries a letter yet, so the universe has no distribution to report.
Disclosures
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
Market Grades are unsolicited: no graded party requests, pays for, or previews a grade. Belief Systems holds no positions in graded markets.
A grade is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position, and is not a substitute for a user's own assessment.