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24H
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This index measures market-implied expectations of Democratic control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Democratic-aligned scenarios, specifically Democratic control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Republican control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Democratic legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Democratic strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
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Theoretical index level – midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 Index set a new all-time high at 119.03, extending a steady multi-week climb. The index has gained roughly 3.5 points over the past week alone.
This index measures market-implied expectations of Democratic control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Democratic-aligned scenarios, specifically Democratic control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Republican control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Democratic legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Democratic strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
Performance data as of Oct 15, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × price: the midpoint, or the settlement value once a market resolves. Total contribution equals the raw index value.
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $BELIEF_API_KEY" \
https://api.beliefsystems.xyz/v1/indices/MIDD26/latestSwap /latest for /history to read the trailing 90 days at 1h or 1d. Free keys run 60 requests a minute and 2,000 a day.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.