Belief United States–Iran Conflict Risk Military Action Expectations 2026 Index

This index measures market-implied expectations of U.S. military action against Iran during the 2026 calendar year. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of conflict-related outcome markets that resolve favorably under scenarios involving direct U.S. strikes, kinetic military engagement, or overt use of force against Iranian targets across multiple dates and contingencies. The index spans a range of temporal windows, operational scopes, and escalation pathways, while offsetting outcomes associated with non-engagement or continued diplomatic restraint. By synthesizing expectations across many distinct but related markets, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of U.S.–Iran military escalation risk rather than the likelihood of any specific strike or event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived escalation pressure as geopolitical tensions, regional security dynamics, diplomatic developments, and military signaling evolve through 2026.