Belief U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 Index

This index measures market-implied expectations of a Republican victory in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of presidential outcome markets that resolve favorably under Republican-aligned scenarios, including individual candidate victories and party-level outcomes, while offsetting exposure to Democratic-aligned outcomes. By synthesizing probabilities across multiple candidates and pathways, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Republican electoral prospects rather than the likelihood of any single nominee prevailing. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Republican strength as political developments, candidate dynamics, polling, fundraising, and macro-political conditions evolve through the election cycle.