Belief Systems – H1 2026 Chart Pack
How prediction markets repriced event risk, January – June 2026

Six publication-ready charts (2400x1350 PNG). All charts show % change,
rebased to 100 at each series' inception; raw index levels never appear.
Free for editorial use under the data license (beliefsystems.xyz/license).
Attribution: Source: Belief Systems (beliefsystems.xyz) – baked into each image.

THE CHARTS

01 – Event risk repriced, H1 2026
The cross-theme summary of the half: conflict risk, monetary policy stance,
and midterm expectations on one canvas, May 2 – June 30. Conflict-risk
expectations ended H1 -74% from their April inception (-72% over the common
window shown); dovish-Fed expectations -52%; Republican midterm expectations
+14% from March inception.

02 – Conflict-risk de-escalation
Conflict-risk expectations fell 63% across May 8-9, as Iran's reply to the US
ceasefire proposal took shape – five weeks before the deal was announced on
June 14. Full window: CONFLICT -74%, PEACE +32%.

03 – Monetary policy's hawkish turn
The June 17 hawkish hold repriced dovish-Fed expectations -32% in a single
day, capping a -52% slide that began with Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed
chair.

04 – Midterm expectations round-trip
Republican midterm expectations fell into the April war escalation,
recovered, and jumped in the May redistricting week to finish H1 +14%; the
Democratic basket ended -7%.

05 – The still point: 2028
While near-dated event risk repriced by double digits, 2028 presidential
election expectations never moved more than 3% from their January base – the
largest single daily move all half was 0.5%.

06 – The ten largest repricings
The ten largest one-day moves of the half, each tied to a nameable catalyst:
five Fed-expectations days, four from the arc of the Iran de-escalation, and
one court ruling on redistricting.

NOTES FOR CITATION

- Postscript on the conflict charts: the June 17 accord did not hold – the
  ceasefire was declared over on July 8-9, after this pack's June 30 cutoff,
  and conflict-risk expectations have repriced upward since. The live series
  is at beliefsystems.xyz/indices.
- Complement pairs (MIDR26/MIDD26, PRESR28/PRESD28, USDOVE/USHAWK) are one
  signal expressed two ways – do not quote both halves as independent
  findings.
- Quote index moves as % change over a stated window, never raw levels.

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